Showing posts with label hardcore effing baseball analysis. Show all posts
Showing posts with label hardcore effing baseball analysis. Show all posts

11.17.2008

Calling You Out: Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel Writer Tom Haudricourt


Albert Pujols, namesake of this here blog, won the 2008 NL MVP today -- despite the aforementioned Haudricourt giving him a seventh-place vote


Just to make sure I wasn't missing something, I consulted a mathematician, who confirmed my suspicions: By voting Albert seventh, Haudricourt declared that six players were more valuable than Numero Cinco. Among those six players were two players (CC Sabathia and Manny Ramirez) who were traded to the National League in July. His preference for Aramis Ramirez, Carlos Delgado, and Prince Fielder is only less offensive in the way that you'd rather be called a bastard than a son of a bitch. The sad part is that an error this grievous only guarantees him a spot on Around the Horn.

Haudricourt's "reasoning" follows:
With the Cardinals finishing fourth, I voted Pujols seventh on my ballot. I don’t consider MVP to be “the most outstanding player” award and therefore don’t just go by who had the best stats. I like to credit players for lifting their teams to the post-season or at least keeping them in the race until the very end.

I understand that the Cardinals would not have been even close to the wild-card berth without Pujols, but I still like players who elevate their game in crunch time and lift their teams to new heights. And I thought Ryan Ludwick had just as much to do with keeping the Cards in the hunt as Pujols did. (Editor's Note: Did no one send Haudricourt a link to this fine piece of sportz jerrnalizm?)
There's no sense in trying to engage a guy like this in an intelligent debate. My advice: If you've got a flaming bag of dog poop lying (laying?) around, e-mail it to thaudricourt@journalsentinel.com.

10.01.2008

BLT is Finally Back

The long-awaited return of Brad Lidge Time was rewarded yesterday with the National League Comeback Player of the Year Award. I'm sure that's a huge trophy, maybe even a meat tray similar to what the women get at Wimbledon. It's been a long journey back from that soul-eating moment in October 2005.

Lidge was actually crazy good this season, blowing none saves...none. As much as we like to make fun of Lidge, he gets props for at least picking himself back up, putting on a pink jumpsuit, and running through the streets of New York, while Doc rides a bicycle in front of him. Wait, who we talking about again?

When I read Lidge and Cliff Lee won this year's CPOY Award, I thought, "that's nice, but not as impressive as Josh Hamilton and Jon Lester's comebacks last year."

Wrong. Wrong!

Carlos Pena and D'meathook won it last year. They were good and all, but looking back: oops.

Also, for further reading on mlb.com, be sure to check out this article titled "Yanks fans divided on Cubs-Dodgers."

NOOO!!!

(I apologize to those who just threw up, but I'm only the messenger.)

PS. Once more for good measure, as I know Sir enjoys Brad Ausmus' reaction:




PSS. And the video too. "Collld-blooded..."

8.27.2008

There's No Such Thing as "LudFlex"

I understand that Dan and Al have to talk about something for three hours every night (God forbid they talk about the actual game), but any time they get into an MVP discussion, the following words invariably arise: "You know, people talk about Albert Pujols, but a sleeper pick might be Ryan Ludwick."

Maybe. And maybe if you were trying to determine the best Seattle band of the Nineties, someone might tab Candlebox as being "overlooked." There's a reason 99.5% of people would overlook Candlebox in favor of Nirvana. That reason is as follows: Nirvana was better.

Dan and Al* never get past the superficial counting stats when they run down Ludwick's case, but let's do a little comparison. Stats are as of August 27.

AVG/OBP/SLG
Pujols: .356/.466/.634
Ludwick: .304/.380/.600

WIN SHARES
Pujols: 27
Ludwick: 21

VORP
Pujols: 78
Ludwick: 47.7


This doesn't even take defense into account (OK, Win Shares does a little) -- mainly because I'm too lazy to play the apples-to-oranges game with a Gold Glove-worthy 1B and a competent right fielder.

But I understand that raw stats aren't enough for some people. So let's put this information to use in a real-life situation. Let's say you're being attacked -- by a chainsaw-wielding, Communist grizzly bear. Now who would you want on your side: a solid player setting career highs in homers and ribs, or an effing stud with a metric buttload of OPS?

Don't mistake me: I'm not trying to take anything away from Ludwick's season. He's been awesome, ranking in the top 20 in both VORP and Win Shares. But if we're talking seriously about MVP candidates, we can't just ignore Albert because he's too "obvious."

Sometimes, the right answer is just that easy to find.


*Dan and Al aren't the only ones to prosecute this argument, but they do so most visibly. I still hope to go to Massage Luxe with Al someday, though.

8.23.2008

Tony LaGenius and His Wacky Lineup Chicanery


Let's get something straight: I disagree with Tony LaRussa (pictured at left -- in the bunny outfit) a large percentage of the time. His hair is stupid. He likes Styx in a non-ironic way. And perhaps worst of all, he has taken and passed the bar exam.

Aside from championing the use of LOOGYs, ROOGYs, and the modern closer paradigm, though, TLR might go down in history as the guy who was crazy enough to bat the pitcher eighth.* I definitely have a way I think lineups should be organized (in my perfect world, Albert would bat leadoff), but I don't get worked up about the eighth and ninth spots in the lineup. Over the course of the season, moving a guy up or down one spot equals roughly 20 additional or fewer at-bats. When you're talking about the dregs of the lineup, big whoops.

But the goal of batting the pitcher is not to get him more at-bats (even though, in theory, it does -- before he's replaced for a pinch-hitter at least). Rather, the goal is to put Albert in a position to bat with runners on more often. But has this actually happened?

During the Cardinals' thrashing of the Braves on Friday night, I had some time to do some quick calculations. I asked a very simple question -- how often does Albert come up with runners on now, and how often did it happen in seasons past? 

Keep in mind that the Cards started batting the pitcher eighth sometime during the second half of '07 and have done so pretty much all season in '08. Albert primarily (like, 99.5% of the time) batted in the three hole during the seasons in question. I estimated his plate appearances based on ABs, BBs, and HBPs. I was too lazy to go look up his sac splits. The results:

2008: 241 PAs with runners on/498 PAs = 48%
2007: 317/671 = 47%
2006: 298/631 = 47%
2005: 332/697 = 48%

So, uh, yeah. Maybe I'm not asking the right question, but I can't see a whole lot of difference, can you? The bottom line, as far as I can tell, is that batting the pitcher eighth isn't that big a deal one way or the other with regard to Albert's mashing opportunities.

And maybe Tony knows this, but does it anyway just to annoy Cardinals fans, writers, bloggers, et al. I could almost respect that.

*He also might go down as the second-winningest manager of all time, but that's neither here nor there.